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Nobody steals a base quite like Lloyd McClendon, so in honor of his amusing thievery, let's take a quick look at the recent history of the stolen base.
Maybe it's because fantasy baseball forces you to look at them more closely, or maybe it's because guys like Ryan Klesko are making it fashionable, but it seems to me that stolen bases are more popular this year than in recent times. So is it my imagination or are the Roger Cedenos and Jimmy Rollins' making people forget about the Lou Brocks and Vince Colemans of years past?
Here's a breakdown of stolen bases over the years and, as it turns out, my imagination got the best of me. In fact, stolen bases are quite low this year compared to recent history.
At first glance, it looks like this year's stolen bases are right in line with the averages. Swiping a sack seems to be a streaky talent that differs with each era, however. Even though the 100 year average is 0.648, the yearly average has drastically changed from decade to decade. The following table shows that stolen bases became en vogue in the 80's (thank you Vince and Rickey) but the past 2 seasons have stopped the trend like Pudge Rodriguez throwing out an overweight DH on the basepaths.
So why has everyone stopped running? The two biggest reasons are large salaries and increased run production. The superstars making the large green are no longer willing to risk their careers for a lousy stolen base. Look at the year to year stats of players like Griffey, Sosa, and A-Rod as prime examples. With run production at its highest levels and home run totals skyrocketing, it is no longer strategically sound to risk an out for one extra base when just about everyone on the team has the potential to hit the ball out of the yard.
At the MRLB Weekly Update, we always try to tie our columns into fantasy baseball. So what do these stolen base statistics mean for fellow fantasy owners? It means that Luis Castillo, Roger Cedeno, Tony Womack, and Ichiro are more valuable than ever. Stolen bases still count for 10% of the overall standings, and since they come at a premium nowadays, it is extremely important to have a couple players on your team that still steal bases.
That's it for this week's column. Next week we will examine some of the effects of early season trades in MRLB. Until then, may all your slides into second hook around the tag...
-The Commish
