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This week, let's examine the trends of Coors Field and how it is making a mockery of the game. Everyone already knows that every player that puts on the purple pinstripes can expect to add about 20 to 30 points to his average and double the round trippers to which he is accustomed. We call this the Vinny Casilla factor (HRs of 40-40-46 in 3 consecutive seasons). The question is: how is FPS affected and how important are Rockies players in the world of fantasy baseball?
If we look at each team's batting statistics as of June 18th, taking into account home and road statistics, two teams seem to stand out among the others but for different reasons. Let's take a look:
Looking only at the home games, it would seem as if the Rockies have the greatest hitting team since the '27 Yanks. Their FPS at home is well over 11 points per game better than the next team! Sure, Todd Helton and Larry Walker are legitimate sluggers, but for every Helton in the Rockies lineup, there is a Juan Pierre or Neifi Perez slap-hitting his way to an easy .300. It is no surprise that the Rockies' FPS on the road is right in the middle of the pack. This is a better indicator that the Rockies are nothing more than an average hitting team.
Does this mean Rockies players do not have an increased fantasy value? Of course not! With a dominant FPS rating at home, even an average player becomes a huge run producer in Coors. The 47.85 FPS/game at home means that a guy like Todd Walker can waltz into the clubhouse with his .285 career average and find himself hitting .306 and on pace to shatter his yearly highs for home runs and RBIs. In other words, those 81 games at Coors can turn a Henry Blanco into a Henry Aaron, so stock up on Rocks while you can - they sell out fast! For those silly enough to leave the confines of Coors Field, look on any milk carton and you will be certain to find a picture of Dante Bichette, Vinny Castilla, or Jeffrey Hammonds. Good luck in the post mile high abyss guys...
The other team I felt needed mentioning was the Seattle Mariners. They play in a pitcher's park, yet they are third in FPS/game at home. Some of this can be attributed to Ichiro stealing bases as if they were free mints at the local family restaurant, but the Mariners are doing much more than swiping bases. A model of consistency, their road FPS/game is just one point higher but remains the best in baseball. These similar numbers show that Seattle has been producing anywhere, anytime (like Shawn Kemp with a 2 day layover in LA).
Keep in mind that the above stats are only for the hitters and do not include any FPS numbers for Seattle's successful staff this year. Looking at these numbers, it is no surprise that the Mariners are 52-16 and threatening to break the all time single season wins record.
Well, this week's analysis didn't exactly revealing anything new or surprising, but using FPS as a guide, it did reiterate a couple things: any player with a bat and a Rockies uniform can sting the ball like never before, and the Mariners are beating the crap out of teams. Good luck the rest of the week and may all your "gappers" become stand up doubles.
